Deviationz +0.84 · 92thRICH
Puts are the richer wing (positive 25Δ RR); stretched vs its 180-day baseline.
DriveLOWCHASE
Vol bid into strength — upside convexity chase, not defensive hedging.
Spot–vol linkNOT CONFIRMED
ρ doesn't confirm — positioning/skew dislocation, not a clean spot-vol signal.
Relative valueFADE / FINANCE
Rich vs baseline: fade or finance the expensive wing via defined-risk structures.
Evidence
BULLISHconfidence: medvalidated
RICH sector_etf bucket separated +5.0%/20d (survived the per-quarter catastrophic gate);
borrow normal today (point-in-time borrow history unavailable — borrow-clean subset is approximate, so this is a tilt, not a forecast); current regime LOW
borrownormal
earningsunknown
expresscall-debit-spread — defined risk
regimeLOW
Structure · call-debit-spread · 28DTE
BUY CALL96 (Δ +0.23)
SELL CALL98 (Δ +0.11)
defined risk; long-premium debit spread; swing hold; exit before next earnings