TEM

$71.60NEUTRAL

spot: 2026/11/15 05:12:46 UTC

analytics: 2026/11/15 16:41:29 UTC

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Volatility Regime

Macro VCG—— · vcg = —

No dealer regime data yet.

VRP

-0.13

CHEAP

IV (ATM)

80.8%

RV

93.8%

IV Rank

65

1y rank 65

IV %ile 30d

76

Implied Move 30d

15.7%

IV 52w Low

58.7%

IV 52w High

90.8%

RV 52w Low

35.1%

RV 52w High

117.7%

Skew 25Δ

+3.9897

IV materially below RV — long-vol structures favored.

Building 1-year history… (≤30s)

Analytical time series

IV / IV-of-IV

— IV (L)— IV-of-IV (R)

Analytical time series

RV / SPY-corr-1m

— RV (L)— SPY-corr-21 (R)

20 sessions

Regime Quadrant

GoldilocksFragile CalmStock PickerSystemic Panic

Systemic Panic: high vol, high corr — broad de-risking

20-session overlay

IV-z vs RV-z

-2.55σ

— IV-z— RV-z

Today's snapshot

IV by DTE

Term Structure

— ATM-2 ($70.00)— ATM-1 ($71.00)— ATM ($72.00)— ATM+1 ($73.00)

Today's IV by strike — one curve per expiration date

Smile

— 2026-10-30— 2026-11-06— 2026-11-13— 2026-11-20

IV (fwd ~30d) vs RV (trailing 21d) — lag is the VRP

HV / IV

— IV— RV

Last 1y

IV %ile Distribution

80th %ile

30-session bars + smoothed z-overlay

VRP Spread

-0.13 pts | widening -0.04 pts