SMH

$486.75NEUTRAL

spot: 2026/11/15 05:12:46 UTC

analytics: 2026/11/15 16:41:37 UTC

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Volatility Regime

Macro VCG—— · vcg = —

No dealer regime data yet.

VRP

-0.19

CHEAP

IV (ATM)

47.1%

RV

66.5%

IV Rank

65

1y rank 65

IV %ile 30d

68

Implied Move 30d

9.1%

IV 52w Low

26.5%

IV 52w High

59.3%

RV 52w Low

24.6%

RV 52w High

73.1%

Skew 25Δ

+0.0760

IV materially below RV — long-vol structures favored.

Building 1-year history… (≤30s)

Analytical time series

IV / IV-of-IV

— IV (L)— IV-of-IV (R)

Analytical time series

RV / SPY-corr-1m

— RV (L)— SPY-corr-21 (R)

20 sessions

Regime Quadrant

GoldilocksFragile CalmStock PickerSystemic Panic

Systemic Panic: high vol, high corr — broad de-risking

20-session overlay

IV-z vs RV-z

-0.75σ

— IV-z— RV-z

Today's snapshot

IV by DTE

Term Structure

— ATM-2 ($475.00)— ATM-1 ($480.00)— ATM ($485.00)— ATM+1 ($490.00)

Today's IV by strike — one curve per expiration date

Smile

— 2026-10-16— 2026-10-19— 2026-10-23— 2026-10-26

IV (fwd ~30d) vs RV (trailing 21d) — lag is the VRP

HV / IV

— IV— RV

Last 1y

IV %ile Distribution

77th %ile

30-session bars + smoothed z-overlay

VRP Spread

-0.19 pts | compressing +0.01 pts